The Problem of order: three symbolic cases - Nicolas, Emile and Leila
From the pursuit of order to the paradigm of complexity
Three brief points and a note on definitions
1. From orderly to complexity science
Spreading ripples of doubt
Complex systems in the physical world
Complex systems in the biotic world
Orderly (modernist) social science and public policy
Disorderly (post-modernist) social science and public policy
Complexity and social science
Complexity and public policy
2. Concepts of complexity
Key concepts of physical complex systems
Key concepts of biotic complex systems
Key concepts of conscious complex systems
Balance and range of outcomes
A different point of view: the fitness landscape
Stakeholder involvement and soft systems methodology
What would a 'complexity map' of politics look like?
What would a complexity theory of democracy look like?
Fundamental regularities and threats
Complexity and the 'third way'
How does complexity differ from and go beyond the third way?
Complexity, politics and the third sector
Is the EU compatible with the third sector?
Using the 'balance and range of outcomes' tool to help the EU promote the third sector
The influence of the paradigm of order on health
Better health at a fraction of the cost - focusing on the basics
An efficient national health system: the Cuban case
Is Cuba's experience unique and what is the magic formula?
The case of the English national health service
Complexity and chronic illness: the case of diabetes
Understanding chronic illness - from order to complexity
Using a fitness landscape to improve diabetes management
A different point of view: the fitness landscape
6. The international arena
International relations theory
European integration theory
Applying a complexity map to the international arena and European Union
Globalisation, Europeanisation and the curious case of the non-death of Scandinavian exceptionalism
Another example: the predictable proposal for a true capital of Europe
Using a complexity cascade to visualise the development of the EU, Scandinavia and Brussels
The case for radical change in development practice
Lopsided view of the way nations evolve
Why to the successful succeed? Self-organised complexity
Why do the unsuccessful stagnate?
A more realistic vision of development
From x-y to fitness landscape thinking
Why changing the framework of development is so slow
Concluding remarks: from hard to soft management
8. Planning dreams into nightmares: The Iraq adventure
The predictability of failure
Was it just state incompetence and/or lack or preparation?
Massive costs and negligible benefits
Where did the complexity come from?
Three acts of orderly reasonableness, but complexity madness
Could others have done better? The Stacey diagram
9. Exploding the myths of terrorism
Myth 1. There is a clear and agreed definition of terror, terrorism and terrorist
Myth 2. September 11 was a tragedy and not a political opportunity
Myth 3. One can reduce the elements of a complex international system into separate and manageable units
Myth 4. The 'war on terror' is a global affair
Myth 5. Global and regional powers are simply reacting to terrorism
Myth 6. The 'war on terror' is being won
Myth 7. Current terrorism is a new type of terrorism
Myth 8. The scale of terrorism has radically increased
Myth 9. Middle eastern and Islamic terrorism is a new and major threat
Myth 10. Al-Qaeda is new as well
Beyond the myths: what does complexity tell us?
A complexity map of international terrorism and its implications
10. Conclusion: Towards a complex and humane public policy for the twenty-first century
Isn't complexity just a recipe for doing nothing?
Is there a morality of complexity?
What can complexity do for the weak?
Why has complexity been so slow to spill over into the social sciences and public policy?
Can complexity be inspirational?
How do we go forward from here?
And finally ... a couple of playful mental exercises
